10 Years of Investing Result

Times really fly fast now we are going for year 2018 and I wish everyone the best luck in 2018 in your career, investing and life :)

I has been investing more than 10 years as a noob and start to track my return 10 years ago and i don't really track my real capital then.

There has been years where I am totally sleeping not bothering the stock investment and only in year 2014 I start more paying attention and dig deeper into stock.

For year 2017,
I have achieved the target profit of $26000 that I set last  years here (I don't differentiate trading and dividend income, just lump into one since profit is profit).

I have made few mistakes like RHT Trust where I added a few lots for quick return due to news and now I am sitting at lost for now. I sold KeppelDC Reit for quick profit and intend to buy back on lower price and the boats never come back.

All thanks for my adrenaline T.T and due to RHT case, I start to keep my financial diaries mistakes to remind me - I hope it will be useful for me.

There is nothing much change in term of the capital I invested as I sold some REIT and switch to another REIT

I am setting aside and start to increase my war-chest in the case Great Sale is coming as the market has been getting higher and higher.

For year 2018, 
My target will be $28000, I am not sure if i will achieve this as my current portfolio does not yield that amount in term of dividend and it will be pretty much on the market if I will have opportunity to add more in order to achieved it.

With the market is getting higher, I am in doubt I will achieve the target but we shall see in 1 year to come.

Even we set long term goal, how much we can achieve is also depend on the market and if we can see any opportunity in-front of us. I shouldn't buy stock just for the purpose to achieve my target. The stock should meet my criteria, otherwise I would rather fail to achieve my target rather than lose money.

For my brick and mortar investment, I have set sufficient enough money to pay the loan and I will be on the comfortable side to pay off the remaining loan.


The chart below show the profit I have for the last 10 years

My current portfolio as end of 2017

Stock Name	Allocation
First REIT	48%
Frasers logistics and Industrial	18%
Religare Health Trust (RHT)	14%
IReit Global	5%
EC World	5%
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT	3%
CapitaLand Retail China Trust	3%
Mapletree Greater China Trust	3%
Fortune REIT	2%

Thanks for reading, any input are welcome :)

CPF Retirement Sum Topping-Up Scheme - Thing I need to be aware

The Tax Relief  Leveraging on CPF (As per 19 Dec 2017)

Year end is coming and hence I am looking how to reduce my tax. I have been searching ways how to reduce my tax and dig further about CPF Retirement Sum Top Up Scheme which I found below and I am not aware before.

Key Note is CPF Retirement Sum Top Up is not a guarantee for Tax Relief as there is a few conditions specified
1. You must not hit the FRS.
2. If you top up your loved one, he or she should not have income exceeding $4000
3. You must not hit $80,000 personal income tax relief.

So for those who use the scheme as a mean for income tax relief please take note else, encourage you to top up for your retirement :)

Another side of thought is if we transfer our OA to SA, this is a good thing to earn more Interest but indirectly we will also increase our SA to reach the FRS faster.

I guess all boiled down to our objectives.

Quoted from CPF Website , link here 

Top Up For My Self

only cash top-ups within the following caps will be eligible for tax relief:

Recipient below age 55	Current FRS less the sum of Special Account (SA) savings and net SA savings withdrawn under CPF Investment Scheme for investments that have not been completely disposed of.
Recipient age 55 and above	Current FRS^ less Retirement Account (RA) savings#

The cap is based on current FRS, rather than the Enhanced Retirement Sum (ERS), to keep tax benefits focused on supporting basic retirement needs. Cash top-ups beyond the above caps will not be eligible for tax relief.

Personal income tax relief cap of $80,000, which will apply from Year of Assessment 2018. This cap applies to the total amount of all tax reliefs claimed, including any relief on cash top-ups made under the Retirement Sum Topping-Up Scheme, made on or after 1 Jan 2017.

• Which mean if I already hit the personal income tax relief, I will not be entitled for tax relief

To My Loves One

On top of the condition above, below condition are apply as well

To qualify for tax relief for cash top-ups made to your spouse's/siblings' CPF accounts, your spouse/siblings must meet either of the following conditions:

a. Income (e.g. salary or tax exempt income such as bank interest, dividends and pension) not exceeding $4,000 in the year preceding the year of top-up*; or

b. Handicapped**.

*"Income" of a person would include income from all sources, such as tax exempt income (e.g. bank interest, dividend and pension) and foreign-sourced income remitted into Singapore. Hence investment income/rental income/directorship income etc, are considered to be income of a person.

** A handicapped person is one who has been incapacitated mentally or physically. Some examples are visual-impairment, loss of hearing, loss of limb and dementia.

EC World REIT - Q3FY17

EC World REIT

Risk

1. Lease Expired concentration from Oct 2020 onward which account 86.6% of gross rental income (Q2FY17 Wale 3.5 years)
2. Asset concentration risk as it is within the province and the asset is very close to each other
3. 3 of the asset on the same sector are close each other
• Chongxian Port Investment, Chongxian Port Logistics, Fu Zhuo Industrial 
• Those assest are likely depend on the steel demand and account 46.% of the total gross revenue
4. 70% of the gross rental income depend on the cash flow of the Sponsor - Forchn Holding
5. RMB - SGD Currency fluctuation
6. Watch Metal demand and price.... up and down might impact the port asset rental or even the default in worst case
7. $200 million loan are offshore loan which has a risk of currency fluctuation
8. The overall loan interest is pretty high compare to the existing reits at 5.4% which might give a hint on the quality of the Sponsor that is not that strong and any increase/decrease of interest rate by 25bps will have impact of around $772,000 based on FY2016 annual report. 
• This currently mitigated by interest rate swap to manage the fluctuation

Why I take the risk

1. Small public float of 20% and supported by few big institution.
1. The sponsor is currently holding 41.2% and one of the loan provision is the sponsor must hold at least 30% of total units
2. Low gearing 29.2%
3. Dividend Yield around 7.5% (based on $0.78 price and assumption of 6% annualized yield) with built in rental escalation which will help to boost the dividend growth - yet to be proven
1. Chongxian Port Investment will have 5% rental increment in FY2018 and it currently contribute around 33% gross revenue based on Q2FY17 
2. Beigang logistic will have 1% rental increment every year and it currently contribute around 27.5%
3. Fu Heng will have 5% rental increment in FY2018 and it is currently contribute around 10% of gross rental income
4. Current CEO average cost is at $0.77 and holding 80,000 shares
5. Performance fee is based on DPU growth, they won't get paid if it is like Sabana Reit.
6. There is a clause in the loan that the unit holder fund should not be less than the higher of (i) 75% of the net assets attributable ($682,024,000) to Unitholders as at the Listing Date and (ii) S$460,000,000. Taking the lowest this will translate to $0.58

What Cause dividend to drop for Q3 17
This will happen if they use this approach

Investment Highlight

UNIQUE EXPOSURE TO THE LOGISTICS AND E-COMMERCE SECTORS IN HANGZHOU Hangzhou is one of the largest e-commerce hubs in China and has market coverage over Zhejiang Province Hangzhou is one of the most important steel transportation hubs along the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal Strong potential of the Chinese logistics and e-commerce infrastructure market

SPONSOR - FORCHN HOLDINGS GROUP

As at 31 December 2015, the audited net asset value of the Sponsor group was RMB 1,363.4 million, and the total debt and total cash of the Sponsor group were RMB 2,649.7 million and RMB 726.5 million respectively. The revenue and the profit after tax of the Sponsor group for the financial year ended 31 December 2015 were RMB 2,950.4 million and RMB 208.6 million respectively

Properties Details with the Rental Agreement Information

CHONGXIAN PORT INVESTMENT
One of China’s key inland ports and Hangzhou’s top inland port for steel products


CHONGXIAN PORT LOGISTICS
One of the largest metal warehouse and logistics developments in the Yangtze River Delta


FU ZHUO INDUSTRIAL
Comprises berths and office buildings and located next to Chongxian Port Investment


STAGE 1 PROPERTIES OF BEI GANG LOGISTICS
One of the largest e-commerce developments in the Yangtze River Delta


HENGDE LOGISTICS
High-specification warehouses offering features such as temperature and humidity control systems


FU HENG WAREHOUSE 
A purpose-built e-commerce distribution centre comprising warehousing, logistics, parcel producing and sorting

Chongxian Port Investment, Stage 1 Properties of Bei Gang Logistics and Fu Heng Warehouse are the three Properties under the Master Leases, and they are expected to collectively contribute to 71.6% of the IPO Portfolio’s Gross Rental Income (RMB298.7 million) for Projection Year 2017. In the absence of the master lease arrangements, the contribution of these Properties to the IPO Portfolio’s Gross Rental Income (RMB251.4 million) will decrease to 68.0%.

According to the Independent Valuers, the rental rate of each of the Properties under the Master Leases is expected to rise and approach the master lease rental level at the end of the five-year period for the reasons as follows. Savills reported that the rent of each of the Properties under the Master Leases is expected to rise as they are dominating projects in the locality. Colliers reported that as the Hangzhou Government imposes more restrictions on the land supply for port use and fewer comparable ports will be built in its area, the rent of Chongxian Port Investment is expected to increase. According to Colliers, outlook for both Stage 1 Properties of Bei Gang Logistics and Fu Heng Warehouse is also expected to be positive as Bei Gang Logistics will become a more mature project in its market and is likely to remain competitive, while Fu Heng Warehouse is expected to benefit from the increased demand and limited supply for e-commerce logistics parks

Pipeline

Lease Profile

Some of the fees structure

Management fee structure based on distributable income and DPU growth which demonstrates the Manager’s alignment of interest with Unitholders


Management Fee
10.0% per annum of the Distributable Income (calculated before accounting for the Base Fee and the Performance Fee in each financial year).

Performance Fee 
25.0% of the difference in DPU in a financial year with the DPU in the preceding full financial year (calculated before accounting for the Performance Fee but after accounting for the Base Fee in each financial year) multiplied by the weighted average number of Units in issue for such financial year.

The Manager has agreed to receive 100.0% of the Base Fee and 100.0% of the Performance Fee in the form of Units for the period from the Listing Date to the end of Projection Year 2017.


Trustee’s fee
Trustee’s fee shall not exceed 0.1% per annum of the value of the Deposited Property, subject to a minimum of S$12,000 per month, excluding out-of-pocket expenses and GST in accordance with the Trust Deed

Management Salary

Pretty much based on salary based for 2016, would have prefer if it is tie to the performance percentage to be higher.

Major Shareholder of EC World REIT

BOCOM International Global Investment Limited (7.88%)
BOCOM International Global Investment Limited is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. Headquartered in Shanghai, Bank of Communications Co., Ltd. is the first nationwide, state-owned joint-stock commercial bank in China with both national and global coverage.


Fosun International Holdings Ltd. (9.77%)
Fosun International Holdings Ltd. is an investment holding company incorporated in the British Virgin Islands which is the indirect controlling shareholder of Fosun International Limited, a company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with stock code 00656

Sunkits Resources Limited (12%)
Sunkits Resources Limited is an indirect wholly-owned subsidiary of China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd., a financial asset management company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange with stock code 01359.

The Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China is deemed to be interested in the Units held by Sunkits Resources Limited. Sunkits Resources Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Cinda (HK) Asset Management Co., Limited. China Cinda (HK) Asset Management Co., Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Cinda (HK) Holdings Company Limited, which is in turn 100% owned by China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd.. The Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China owns 67.84% of China Cinda Asset Management Co., Ltd.

Debt Profile

Onshore Facilities 

• 3-year RMB998.9 million (S$203.3 million) secured term loan facility. The portion of the loan due for repayment within one year has been classified as current liability

• The annualized all-in interest rate for the quarter and six months ended 30 June 2017 were 6.2% and 6.3% respectively. As at 30 June 2017, the above facilities were fully drawn.  

• Onshore Obligors shall maintain a minimum blended debt service coverage ratio (“DSCR”) of 4.0x during the loan tenor ; and

• The DSCR ( defined as Net Operating Cash Flow/Debt Service Payments, refer to IPO for details) will be tested with reference to a 12-month trailing period, ending on the last day of the fiscal year

•  Unitholders’ funds shall not be less than the higher of (i) 75% of the net assets attributable to Unitholders as at the Listing Date and (ii) S$460,000,000

• EC World REIT shall have a minimum consolidated interest coverage ratio of 2 times4 ; and

• EC World REIT shall have a maximum gearing ratio of 45.0%

Offshore Facility

• 3-year S$200 million syndicated secured term loan facility secured

• The annualized all-in interest rate for the quarter and six months ended 30 June 2017 were 5.1% and 4.9% respectively. As at 30 June 2017, the above facilities were fully drawn and 100% of the interest rate risk of the Offshore Facility was hedged using floating to fixed interest rate swaps.

• Unitholders’ funds shall not be less than the higher of 75% of the net assets attributable to Unitholders as at the Listing Date and (ii) S$460,000,000;
• EC World REIT shall have a minimum consolidated interest coverage ratio of 2 times; and

• EC World REIT shall have a maximum gearing ratio of 45.0%.

• the Sponsor shall at all times own and maintain an effective Unitholding of at least 30.0% of the total Units

• the Sponsor shall remain at least 51.0% owned by Mr Zhang Guobiao at all times

• the Manager shall not cease to be an affiliate of Forchn Investment (Singapore) Pte. Ltd

Revolving Credit Facility

• S$50.0 million with DBS Bank Ltd. As at 30 June 2017
• ECW had drawdown total of S$24.0 million short-term loan backed by standby letter of credit (“SBLC”) of S$24.0 million issued by DBS Bank (China) Limited in favor of DBS Bank Ltd. The SBLC is collateralized against a cash deposit of RMB130 million (S$26.5 million). 
• The annualized all-in interest rate for the quarter and six months ended 30 June 2017 were 1.3%

The annualized all-in interest rate for the ECW for the quarter and six months ended 30 June 2017 were 5.4%. The Aggregate Leverage for the Group as at the end of the period was 29.2% as compared to 28.6% as at 31 March 2017

The final maturity date of the Onshore Facilities and the Offshore Facility 3 years from the date of the drawdown of the Facilities; and the repayment date of the Onshore Facilities to be extended by the Onshore Lenders

Side note

Cash flow is tight as it is paying down the income tax

• From FY2016 10,798 , paid $0
• Q1 $13,693, paid 468
• Q2 $6,042, paid (10,416)
• Average income tax per quarter is around (3,806)

There is a repayment of principal an interest required for the onshore termloan






















Financial Ratio
Gearing 29.2%
WALE 3.5 Years
Interest Rate 5.4%
100% of offshore SGD facilities on fixed rate
Debt Maturity 3 years

Key Risk
1. 86.6% Lease expiry by FY2020

Where to get Singapore Stock Price update after yahoo and google shutdown their service

Update, seem there is some issue with the API Call to Alpha Vantage, I have email them to find out more.
- For my blog price I manually update with data from SGX that i downloaded.

For those blogger that lost the way to do auto update the price, the alternative after Yahoo finance stop their service is to use ALPHA VANTAGE, currently it is free and I am not sure if it will be like google and yahoo finance.


They cover more than just Singapore Market, My Singapore REIT price update now get from there,do try it out.

They support JSON or CSV format.

Enjoy it while it last!

October 2017 Portfolio update - 2017 income achieved

My Current Portfolio

Stock Name

First REIT

Frasers logistics and Industrial

Religare Health Trust (RHT)

IReit Global

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT

CapitaLand Retail China

Mapletree Greater China Trust

Fortune REIT

It has been quite sometime since my last post i update on my portfolio

Some of my portfolio movement

1. Frasers Commercial Trust due to uncertainty on the lease renewal for HP exit with some profit that will last me for another 2 Q dividend my purchase price
2. Trimmed some of my holding in Religare Health Trust with some profit hence my average cost now is 0.66 cents
3. Increased my holding in Frasers Logistics and Industrial.

With First Reit announcement on the dividend of 2.14 cent I have achieved my 2017 target of $26000 and I might hit $28000 depend on my last 2 stock dividend to be announced at later part

I will have challenge to achieve my next target of $28000 unless opportunity knock on my door as I have been selling and buying some of my holding.

First Reit - Siloam Hospitals Button, Lippo Plaza Button and Siloam Hospital Yogyakarta acquisition

For Financial Year 2017, the manager has acquired 1 property and 1 more in process,

• Siloam Hospitals Buton  and Lippo Plaza Buton (It is a one single story retail that connected to the Hospital) which completed in 10 October 2017, based on the projection in 2016 Financial year it will contribute additional of 0.07 cent
• For the hospital the base rent is $1.6 million and will start to increase after 5 years. No variable rent for the first 5 years.
• For the Plaza base rent is $1.242 million and will start to increase after 5 years
• The lease term for both properties is 15 years + 15 years
• Total base rent will yield around 10%
•  Siloam Hospitals Yogyakarta  that was announced on 13 October 2017 to be acquired and based on the projection in 2016 Financial year it will contribute additional 0.03 cent.
•  Base rent of $2.43 million, resulted about 8.8% yield and will start to increase after 5 years. No variable rent for the fist 5 years
• The lease term is 15 years  + 15 years

The current dividend from Q1FY17 to Q3FY17 has been flat at 2.14 cent, assuming it will be the same for Q4FY17 then it will bring the total dividend of  8.56 cent which is an increase from 8.47 cent - an increase of 1% from previous year which lag from what I projected of 2% per year.

Based on the cost and the yield above, if I to assume 0.03 cents on the lower end for the future acquisition and available of debt /$150 millions before reaching 40%, First Reit should be able to add another 0.15 cent. With this, First Reit has a potential to give 8.71 cent base on the current dividend yield excluding the organic rental growth.

Base on the previous purchase  the following properties will have their base rent adjusted and variable rent kick in which will provide a little boost to 2018 dividend

1. Siloam Sriwijaya : $3.9 million. Base rental increment and variable rent start from 29 Dec 2017
2. Siloam Hospitals Kupang & Lippo Plaza Kupang: $6.9m base rental increment and variable rent start from 14 Dec 2018

As for the most recent one, it will start at the later years and notice the year has been increase from the previous 3 years to 5 years now

1. Siloam Hospitals Labuan Bajo: $1.85 million. Base rental increment start and variable rent from 30 Dec 2021
2. Siloam Hospitals Buton And Lippo Plaza Buton: $2.84 million. Base rental increment and variable rent  start from 10 Oct 2022

I am expecting for the rest of the properties will have their rental adjust upward even not a lot as the current inflation from Jan to Sep is 0.6%.

Past First Reit Post

Keppel-KBS US Reit - Quick Review - Offering Price is US$0.88

Summary

1. Keppel-KBS US REIT offers the distribution yield for Forecast Year 2018 of 6.8% and Forecast Year 2019 of 7.2%. This translate to 5.8% yield growth
2. Net Asset is US$0.84 translate to 1.04 P/B
3. Rental escalation between 2-3% for 97.5% of current lease
4. Positive rental reversion might be possible as the current passing rate is lower than market rate
5. weighted average lease expiry (“WALE”) by NLA as at 30 June 2017 of 3.7 years (ManuLife is 5.3). No single year has more than 20% of total leases expiring which is good to diverse the concentration risk.
6. 36% gearing providing additional debt headroom of approximately US$131.6 million before reaching 45%, however right issues might be coming in the future.
• Interest rate is floating at average of 3.x% vs ManuLife fixed interest rate around 2.x%
7. Interest coverage ratio based on FY2017 is 3.3x whereby ManuLife is 5x
8. Occupancy Rate is 90% whereby ManuLife is 95%
9. Debt maturity earliest will be in FY2021 with the average interest of 3.35%. Borrowing are dominated in US dollars hence provide natural hedge to the currency risk.
10. Diversified tenant base with limited tenant concentration with top tenant contribute not more than 22.3%, led by tenants in growth and defensive sectors such as technology, finance and insurance, professional services as well as medical and healthcare
11. All the 11 property are freehold mixture of Grade A and Grade B office (ManuLife is mainly on Grade A) and the first distribution, which will be in respect of the period from the Listing Date to 30 June 2018 (“First Distribution”), will be paid by the Manager on or before 30 September 2018.

Beware of the forex loss when in the future they issue rights and you try to subscribe more than what you allocated and do not manage to get it. Look at HWZ forum for some of the sharing on ManuLife rights

Download KEPPEL-KBS US Reit IPO Prospectus here

In Summary,
I am favouring ManuLife (Not vested) and I think the main drawback is the 1st distribution is still far away - don't see why I want to lock my money so long.

Note:
“Cash Rental Income” is defined as rental income and recoveries income without straight-line adjustments and amortization of tenant improvement allowance, leasing commissions and free rent incentives.

OVERVIEW OF KEPPEL-KBS US REIT

Keppel-KBS US REIT is a Singapore REIT established with the investment strategy of principally
investing, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio of income-producing commercial assets
and real estate-related assets in the key growth markets of the United States.

The IPO Portfolio comprises a balanced and resilient mix of Class A and B office buildings in the CBD and suburban areas, well-served by key transportation nodes and supporting amenities.

KEY INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS

Keppel-KBS US REIT offers investors the opportunity to gain exposure to the attractive US office real estate sector via a publicly listed platform, backed by a distinctive portfolio of high quality, income-producing office buildings, and backed by strong Sponsors, as well as an experienced management team focused on delivering long-term sustainable distribution and total returns to Unitholders

 Dividend

Keppel-KBS US REIT offers the distribution yield for Forecast Year 2018 of 6.8% and Forecast Year 2019 of 7.2% translate to 5.8% yield growth.

Approximately 79.5% and 75.2% of Cash Rental Income for Forecast Year 2018 and Projection Year 2019 is derived from existing leases, respectively. Furthermore, at least 75% of interest expense will be hedged.

Assumption to achieve 5.8% growth ,
The distribution yield growth from Forecast Year 2018 to Projection Year 2019 of 5.8% is underpinned by built-in rental escalations, positive rental reversion opportunities and potential increase in IPO Portfolio occupancy level.

Organic growth opportunity to growth the dividend
Built-in rental escalations,
Approximately 97.5% of existing leases by Cash Rental Income and 97.5% of existing leases by NLA have built-in rental escalations. The rental escalations generally range from 2.0% to 3.0%.

Positive rental reversion opportunities,
The IPO Portfolio has a WALE by NLA as at 30 June 2017 of 3.7 years, with below market average rents for expiring leases. This offers the opportunity to lease expiring space at potentially higher
market rent rates.

Lease up opportunities, 
Several of the Properties have the ability to lease up, given that their current occupancy rates are below the market average, and hence lead to potential growth in rental income

Lease Profile

Around 15% of the lease will be up for renewal for each year

Income/Revenue Breakdown

Well distribute tenant concentration with top tenant contribute not more than 22.3% by cash rental income

Gearing

As at the Listing Date, Keppel-KBS US REIT will have total borrowings of US$289.4 million, 100.0% of which is unsecured. This translates to an Aggregate Leverage of approximately 36.0%, providing an adequate debt headroom of approximately US$131.6 million to fund Keppel-KBS US REIT’s future growth

Properties

List of the 11 Properties and the statistic to show the properties are located in the growth area compare to the national average

Fees

Management Fees
Base Fees,
10% per annum of Keppel-KBS US REIT’s Annual Distributable Income (as defined in the Trust Deed and calculated before accounting for the Base Fee and the Performance Fee).

Performance Fee,
25.0% of the difference in DPU in a financial year with the DPU in the preceding financial year (calculated before accounting for the Performance Fee but after accounting for the Base Fee in each financial year) multiplied by the weighted average number of Units in issue for such financial year.

The Performance Fee is payable if the DPU in any financial year exceeds the DPU in the preceding
financial year, notwithstanding that the DPU in the financial year where the Performance Fee is payable may be less than the DPU in any preceding financial year
.
For the avoidance of doubt, where the DPU in a financial year is less than the DPU in any preceding
financial year, the Manager shall not be required to return any Performance Fee paid to it in any preceding financial year.

Trustee’s Fee ,
0.015% per annum of the value of the Deposited Property, subject to a minimum amount of S$14,000 per month, excluding out-of-pocket expenses and GST.

Property Management Fee,
Charged based on gross revenue income and ranges from 1.5% to 3.0% of the gross revenue income

Others
1% Acquisition Fee
0.5% Divestment Fee
3% of Project Cost Development Management Fee

Unit Lock up period

100% : 6 months from the date of date of issuance
50% :12 months from the date of issuance

Singapore REIT Result, Dividend Yield, Gearing, Interest Coverage Ratio and Book Value

Singapore REIT Result - Update 9 Nov 17

Price is delayed-auto update and the rest of the field I will update manually.

You can download the file from Singapore Reit Data for your own analyst

1. For the yield, I am using either the last year total dividend or based on the assumption of the last quarter dividend to derive the total dividend for current year
2. For update date, I will update as soon as possible whenever I am available.

Please do your own diligence as the data here provided as information only and there might be a data entry error.

All the best for all of you.

In the future you can refer to Singapore REIT tab to get the information

Following are the REIT yet to announce their result for this earning season

Company Name	Next Update	Dividend (Cent)	Ex-Date	Pay Day	Remarks
Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust	30-Oct-17	8.108	3 No	29 Nov	After Market
OUE Hospitality Trust	1-Nov-17	1.36	7 No	1 Dec	After Market
Far East Hospitality Trust	2-Nov-17	1.03	8 Nov	15 Dec	After Market
Frasers Logistic & Industrial Trust	2-Nov-17	1.68	8 Nov	19 Dec	Before Market
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust	2-Nov-17	0.86	13 Nov	29 Nov	After Market
OUE Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust	2-Nov-17	1.15			After Market
Manulife US REIT	3-Nov-17	1.6			Before Market
Ascendas Hospitality Trust	6-Nov-17	2.73	10 Nov	12 Dec	After Market
EC World REIT	8-Nov-17	1.44	14 Nov	28 Dec	After Market
IREIT Global	9-Nov-17	1.42			After Market
Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust	9-Nov-17	3.37	15 Nov	8 Dec	Before Market

Do scroll to the right for more columns

CapitaLand Retail China Trust (CRCT) Q3FY17

Overall Summary

1. Slight drop of occupancy from 96.2% to 95.6% compare to previous quarter and drop in dividend compare to previous quarter due to disposal of CapitaMall Anzhen.
2. CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan have negative rental reversion for 270 sq m area -Even it is small area, kinda disappointed to see this though as previously reversion for Q1FY17 was 35.1% and Q2FY17 64.4%.
3. Bulk of the remaining lease to expire in Q417 come from CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan (26.1%) and CapitaMall Wuhu (14.1%). Let see if CapitaMall Mingzhongleyuan will be able to have good rental reversion as Q117 or Q217. As for CapitaMall Wuhu, nothing to be expected will see what the Manager will do with Wuhu.
4. Overall rental reversion is positive (average Q1FY17 was 3.6%, Q2FY17 was 7.1%, Q3FY17 is 7.5%)
5. Gearing at 35.4% with the borrowing cost at 2.44% and Interest coverage ratio at 6 times
6. Net Asset Value at $1.61

Dividend History for 2017

Dividend drop against Q217 from 2.62 cent to 2.37 cents. I am Expecting one time distribution for Q417 to level up the DPU due to the loss of income from CapitaMall Anzhen or a new acquisition to replace CapitaMall Anzhen

Q1 0.0274

Q2 0.0262

Q3 0.0237 (to be paid in Q4)

Debt Profile

Lease Profile

My Previous post on CapitaLand Retail China Trust

CSE Global 1H17 - Opportunity or Falling knife?

Update on 9 Nov 17

CSE Global Limited (CSE) is a global technologies company listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange,with an international presence spanning the Americas, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa regions. CSE is a leading systems integrator, focusing on the provision and installation of a variety of control systems as well as turnkey telecommunication network and security solutions, targeting the oil & gas, infrastructure and mining industries.

The Group has now more than 1,000 employees worldwide, and operates a network of 39 offices across the globe, generating more than 90 percent of its revenues outside its home market.

Group Operation in the following Industry segment

1. Mining & Mineral
2. Infrastructure
3. Oil & Gas

Revenue and the profit has been in the declining trend, the major drag is from Oil & Gas, current Infrastructure is holding the drop due to Oil & Gas

Revenue

	1H17	FY16	FY15
Mining & Mineral	11,100	22,032	13,062
Infrastructure	42,300	58,902	53,936
Oil & Gas	106,600	236,835	344,956

EBIT

	1H17	FY16	FY15
Mining & Mineral	300	1,924	1,634
Infrastructure	6,200	8,362	8,245
Oil & Gas	1,900	17,274	30,623

Dividend Paid in the past has been 2.75 cents for the past 3 years (2014 on-ward). CSE Global has re-iterate to keep 2.75 cents for FY17. For 1H17, they have declare 1.25 cents which cost around  $6.5 million and for the remaining 1.5 cents will cost around $7.7 million based on the current no of shares 516,067,852.

1H17 net profit is around $6 million.

Net Asset Value stand at 43.52 cents

Insider has been selling since Feb 17, here for the detail.

Another insider selling 1,867,600 shares on 30th Oct

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) Q4FY17

Overall

1. We have yet feel the impact of HP lease expiry as the 1st tranche only expire in 30 Sep and next will be 30 Nov
2. Between now to 1Q18 will need to assume lost of income around 18% of gross rental
1. Are you ready to accept the worst scenario? 
2. However the place to be vacated out passing rent is current below the market rate
3. Positive rental reversion for Q417 due to central park
4. WALE for Singapore office is pretty short which around 1 year plus
1. To note, office property lease expiry will be around 7.7% gross rental
2. Passing rent and current rent not much a big gap.
1. Based on the average 3-5 years lease period, the likely worst rental reversion may come in FY18 on-ward as office rent was on uptrend from 2014 to 2015 (Wrong???)

Dividend

As expected, there is no catalyst for the dividend growth. For Q417 the dividend is lower by 1.6% compare to last year Q417 at 2.407 cent even with 18% Management fees to be paid by FCOT Units. In Q416, no management fees paid in unit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lease Expiry Profile

1. 33.8% of gross rental will expire in FY18
2. Hewlett-Packard Enterprise confirm not renewing 6.6% of it
1. Management has manage to rent out 61,000 out of 178.843 sf and from the rental revision slide, seems like the management has achieve rental +1.1% what HPE has paid
3. Next blow seem will come from  Hewlett-Packard Singapore Pte Ltd (HPS) which account 11.1% of FCOT rental and will expire in 30 Nov 2017 - This will likely push down the dividend.
4.  Will we see negative rental reversion in FY18?
1. Grade B CBD rent is $7.3 
1. CSC passing rent is $7.62 and it is account for 6.3% of gross rental income
2. 55 Market Street passing rent is $7.3 
2. Business Park (city) rent is $5.55 and ATP passing rent is $4
1. Do you see this as a jewel in crisis?
3. Central Park passing rent is $554 vs current $700 likely will achieve positive rental reversion. This might explain why central park rental boost the portfolio positive rental reversion

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Debt Profile

1. No debt maturing until August 2018
2. Debt expiring in any one financial year no more than S$182 million
3. 91% of gross borrowings on fixed rate

Previous Post of Frasers Commercial Trust

CapitaLand Retail China Trust (CRCT) Q2FY17

Key Item from the announcement

1. Disposal of CapitaMall Anzhen
1. Net gain of $31.5 million
2. Loss of Net Property Income around $14 million
3. Loss of Income from the reclaim of 4th floor from BHG in CapitaMall Wangjing until it start contribute income in Q2FY18
4. Loss of Income due to this disposal will be supported by the gain?
2.  CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan rental catching up from the negative for past 2 years. Rental reversion for Q1FY17 was 35.1% and Q2FY17 64.4%, will it go back to its previous glory where it was ever contribute about $5.2 million or will ever go higher which can support some of the loss of income from CapitaMall Anzhen at least by 1/2
3. Overall rental reversion is positive (average Q1FY17 was 3.6% and Q2FY17 was 7.1%)
4. Occupancy rate relatively stable at 96.2% however in Q3 expect to be drop due to Point 1
5. Average WALE 4.9 Years
6. Debt, secured the refinancing $375 million that due in Sep and Dec 17 however lack of the new due date.

Post on CRCT

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) Q3FY17

Overall

1. Between now to 1Q18 will need to assume lost of income around 18% of gross rental
1. Are you ready to accept the worst scenario?
2. WALE for Singapore office is pretty short which around 1 years plus
3. Based on the average 3-5 years lease period, the likely worst rental reversion may come in FY18 on-ward as office rent was on uptrend from 2014 to 2015
4. No much catalyst to boost the DPU.

Dividend

Drop to 2.39 cents (which also inclusive of the income support due to the hotel development in China Square) or down about 4% compare to previous quarter however compare to previous financial it is relatively stable.
Q2 the manager has opt to receive 12% fee in unit whereby in Q1 the management opt to receive 100% in cash

Lease Expiry Profile

Till to date, there is no much news on HP on renewing

1. In the final quarter of FY17 from July to September 2017, major leases expiring include the lease of Hewlett Packard Enterprise Singapore Pte Ltd (“HPE”) at Alexandra Technopark which contributes approximately 5.6% of the portfolio gross rental income. 
2. In the first quarter of FY18, major leases expiring include the leases of HPE and Hewlett Packard Singapore Pte Ltd at Alexandra Technopark, which contribute approximately 1.5% and 11.1% of the portfolio gross rental income, respectively.

FY17 Lease Profile

Overall Lease Profile

Debt Profile

1. No debt maturing until August 2018
2. Debt expiring in any one financial year no more than S$182 million
3. 91% of gross borrowings on fixed rate

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AA REIT) 1Q218

Occupancy History

Q118	FY17	FY16	FY15	FY14	FY13
91.00%	94.60%	93.40%	95.80%	97%	96.10%

Lease

22.9% of lease base on gross rental income will expired

• 13.5% (14,700 nla) lease will not be renewed which in Q417, the manager has mentioned Cimelia Resource will not renewing its master lease which mean a loss of $2.56m gross rental income and it is account 2% of gross rental income. This one of the cause the occupancy rate to drop to 91%
• Successfully extended the master lease of CIT Cosmeceutical Pte Ltd (6,255.0 sqm of net lettable area), a top 10 tenant, ahead of its lease expiry in FY2018.
• Q118 Lease reversion is -4.3%

Dividend

Q1	FY17	FY16	FY15	FY14	FY13
0.025	0.1105	0.1135	0.1107	0.1053	0.1072
-9.50%	-2.64%	2.53%	5.13%	-1.77%

For Q118, the distribution rate is 94.4%

Debt

Debt for FY18 $69m and $120m has been secured to be extended to 2021 and 2022 hence no debt will need to be refinance for FY18.

Debt for FY19 of $98.4m and $117m will need to be refinance by Nov 18 and Feb 18

In Summary

1. Renewal  lease reversion is -4.3% and for those new rental and there is no information what is the rate of new rental secured to replace expired rental if it is below the expired rent rate.
2. The industrial leasing market remains challenging as supply continues to outpace demand in a soft market environment. This is likely to exert further downward pressure on rentals and occupancy
3. 8 Tuas Avenue 20 has secured the 1st tenant with 10 years lease, with the close proximity the prospect to secure the tenant should be better.
4. 51 Marsiling Road will be ready in 2Q18 and provide around $3.5m rental, this should cushion the negative rental reversion and lost of Cimelia master lease.

Post on AA Reit