Friday 9 November 2018

Frasers Logistics and Industrial Trust Q4 FY18 Review


Dividend Payout

Q4 FY18 DPU of 1.78 cent is lower than Q3 FY18 of 1.8 cent in term of Singapore dollar however in term of Australian dollar is is higher from 1.76 to 1.78 cent of Australian dollar.

Exchange rate hedge at A$1:S$1.0011 and current exchange rate is A$0.99:S$1.00

The management has provide guidance on the exchange rate impact to the DPU
A 100 bps points increase in the AUD:SGD and EUR:SGD exchange rates will result in an increase of 0.02 Singapore cents in DPU

A$2 million distribution from divestment gain is include in Q4 FY18.

Revenue

There is additional A$1.9 million relates to the early surrender fee received for Lot 105 Springhill Road, Port Kembla, New South Wales. This property is up for renewal in 20 Aug 2019 and the space have been taken up by another tenant with 3 year lease from Aug 18.

Few item there will impact the revenue
Acquisition of the 21 properties in German and Netherland is only from 25 May to 30 Sep.
Acquisition of one Australia property is only contribute from 5 Sep to 30 Sep
Divestment of 2 Australia is in 17 and 20 Aug so there is no income from 20 Aug to 30 Sep

Debt

Nothing much change from the previous quarter
  1. Healthy Interest coverage ratio at 7 times
  2. Interest Rate 82% fixed
  3. Average cost borrowing 2.5%
  4. Gearing at 34.6%

Lease Expiry

Well spread lease expiry with average around 10% except for 2022 and 2026

Management Fees

For Q4 FY18, The management fees paid 100% in unit as for FY18 is 88.2% in unit. I will wish more management fees paid in cash while maintaining the DPU.


Rental Reversion

Average rental reversion is negative at -3.2%

There is one -19.8% rental reversion however this property only contribute A$ 1.2 million to gross revenue in FY17 where by for 55-59 Boundary Road, Carole Park, the rental reversion at 3.9% and the gross revenue in FY17 is A$1.7 million



Divestment and Acquisitions

In summary, the divestment will cause lost of around A$ 9 million whereby the Acquisition will add additional around A$ 6 million. Note one in gross revenue term and one in NPI term.

Divestment of A$ 98 million also net A$ 23 million gain, A$ 2 million distributed in Q4 FY18 and A$ 62.6 million used to fund the acquisition



Acquisition
31 Oct 18, Mandeveld 12 in Mepple, The Netherlands which will bring  in additional A$ 2 million and it fully funded by debt. The purchase price is approximately S$ 39.88 million


5 Sep 18, Properties lease hold and free hold in Australia which will bring in additional NPI of AUD 4 million. The acquisition is fully funded by divestment of 2 Australia property. The purchase price is A$ 62.6 million

Divestment
20 Aug 18, 80 Hartley Street in Australia for around S$ 90 million which net S$ 17 million gain. The property contribute around A$ 7.9 million to gross revenue in FY 2017

17 Aug 18, Lot 102 Coghlan Road in Australia for around A$ 8.75 million which net almost A$ 2 million gain. The Property contribute around A$ 1 million gross revenue in FY2017


Saturday 3 November 2018

End Oct 18 Portfolio update - 2018 Profit target achieved ^_^

Total Market Value as of 1st Nov stood around $400,000 and it yield about $28,000 dividend.

My portfolio market value has drop from $420,000 end of last year to $400,000, the biggest drag come from First Reit due to the issue that the Sponsor currently has that I blogged here.

I have achieved my target I set for this year to earn $28,000 this year as at 1st Nov 18 currently my realized capital gain and dividend reach $28,780.

With FLT yet to announce their dividend, Likely I will hit $30,000.

Below are my current holding from the largest to the smallest.

Stock
First REIT
Frasers logistics and Industrial
CapitaLand Retail China Trust
Mapletree Greater China Trust
IReit Global
EC World
Frasers Commercial Trust
Fortune REIT
Fraser Property
Valuetronic
Apac Reality

Friday 26 October 2018

MapleTree North Asia Commercial Trust (MNACT) Q2FY18/19

MNACT Q2 FY18/19 Result Review


The result is pretty good in my opinion due to
  1. Historical positive rental reversion
  2. Only 7% of debt will be maturing in Mar 2020
  3. New source of income diversification from Japan Properties 
  4. Percentage of management fees paid in cash has increase to 12.9%, in the past it has been paid in units of MNACT
* MNACT paid dividend quarterly now!

Debt

The average interest rate has inch up from 2.44% in previous quarter to 2.48% which is likely due to the refinancing for the loan due in Mar 19 and partial amount due in Mar 21.

With the refinancing, there will be no debt need to be refinance in Year 2019 and the next refinancing will be $206m in Mar 2020.

The management has provide guidance an increase of 50bps will reduce the dpu payout by 0.072 cent. If we assume the annual DPU will be 7.7 cent based on 1.926 quarter DPU, the impact of interest rate will be minimal

Proportion of fixed interest rate remain at 78%


Rental Reversion

It has a good up rental reversion and historically it has positive rental reversion (see the 40% positive reversion and it is anchor tenant!)



Lease Expiry


Potential organic revenue growth if management can keep the rental reversion for upcoming lease that expired. On another flip coin, I worry how long the manager can keep this good track record

Receivable

It has recognized the refundable consumption tax of S$25.2 million by the tax authorities arising from the acquisition of the Japan Properties resulted to boost MNACT cash to $184m


Financial Ratio

  1. Gearing 39%, increase from 36.2%
  2. Average effective Interest Rate 2.48%, increase from 2.44%
  3. Interest Coverage Ratio 4.1 remain same as previous quarter
  4. Next debt refinancing 7% of total debt in Mar 2020
  5. Occupancy rate 99.6%

Management Performance Fees structure (align with Shareholder)

REIT Manager performance fees is based on a performance fee of 25.0% of the difference in DPU of financial year with the DPU in the preceding financial year multiplied by the weighted average number of Units in issue for such financial year


Thursday 18 October 2018

First REIT Q3, looking into SILOAM and Lippo Karawaci

There has been few negative news revolving Lippo Karawaci(LPKR) which is the largest Master Payee for First Reit, some of the link below to the news
1. Downgrade by Moody
2. Corruption by some of LPKR Senior Employee

First REIT Financial,

Nothing much has change a few some of the key item I would like to keep in mind

Receivable

This has been concern for many First Reit shareholder and it is one of the highlight in analyst report.
Receivable has increase from 29m in Q2 to 49M in Q3, an increase of 20M. The Manager shared it has received 17.5m in 15 Oct and the quarterly report is ended on 30 Sep, hence it is a late but it is late on advance rental payment (Oct to Dec).

This is basically related to LPKR cash flow issue highlighted in the news above.

Debt

First REIT has a debt of 100m that will need to be refinanced by Nov 18 and 10m to be refinance in Mar 19. It is currently in negotiation with the bank to extend. The next debt need to be refinance is $182.1m in FY2021 which 2-3 years from now.


Current Average Effective Interest Rate is around 4% and for the fixed interest rate it is hedge for 2 years (No clarity on when the hedge will end) and the debt on fixed rate proportion 59%.

As we are in the raising interest rate environment, we could expect it might be refinanced with higher interest rate.

Now, PT Lippo karawaci (LPKR) - Account for 82.4% of First REIT Income


I took a quick glance on Siloam Hospital Financial report and does not seem Siloam Hospital having issue on their cash flow. SILO current asset is higher than their total debt.

Next, I took a look at Lippo Karawaci Financial report ended Mar 18 which has 51.05% interest in SILO. Their current ratio which is the current asset/current liabilities actually quite high at 5.

Looking into one level down in LPKR financial report,

Current Asset (in the report 45,022,456)

Below I only take those that i think is liquid
  1. Cash and equivalent : 1,873,233
  2. Available for Sale Financial Asset : 6,799,644
    • This is include their holding in LMIR and First REIT (which they have disposed half of their holding and now the holding at 10.63% of the total First Reit issued unit)
  3. Other Current Financial Assets : 2,250,580
  4. Inventories :29,835,373




Current Liabilities (in the report 8,887,980),

Some of the interesting Item out of those figure
  1. Advances from Customers: 2,428,184
  2. Sale and Leaseback Transactions : 263,712
    1. This is interesting as I guess it is related to FIRST REIT as we can find the detail in their foot note 45.b


Now, looking at their long term debt

Below are their financial ratio


Below are their debt maturity



For the cash flow, 

It is currently generating negative cash flow



Conclusion

As per report in many website, if LPKR has cash flow problem they might want to sell some of their asset to fund their cash flow which they did with their disposal 100% disposal on Bowsprit and 10.63% in First Reit.

With the recent corruption charges, their sales on Meikarta project might be impacted as Me as an investor, I will avoid the project that has dispute.

Looking at LPKR financial report, I will hold my First Reit for now while monitoring their financial and on the corruption charges. However DPU might be impacted by the raising interest rate.

While looking at those company, I found Mr Ketut Budi Wijaya has position on those company, interesting.






Sunday 7 October 2018

Debt Profile of my REIT Holding - The Impact of Interest Rate starting to be felt?

It seem now I start to feel the impact from US Interest rate hike start, my home loan that is tie to the Fix deposit rate has been increasing few times this year every time US raise their interest rate.

With this, I assume it will be the same for loan to the business and it will start to impact the REIT especially those correlate to USD interest rate hence its trigger me to review the loan of my few largest REIT holding

First REIT

  1. Proportion of debt based on fix rate has been reducing from 92.3% to 60.7%
  2. 100M is due to be refinanced by 2018
  3. No information on the average interest rate in their financial report.

First REIT has been having a few negatives news that make me worry as well
  1. The Sponsor financial instabilities and with Rupiah depreciating against USD, it might add more issue to the sponsor. 
  2. OUE has taken over the REIT Manager which I don't really like as based on the other 2 REIT under OUE, it has not been performing well and more like dumping ground.

With the above,
Interest Rate hike might hurt First REIT distribution as only 60% with fixed interest rate.

If REIT manager under OUE make the 1st non-dpu friendly acquisition from OUE, I guess it is the time to say bye to First REIT before it destroyed further.

Now i am pondering if I should reduce further my holding in First Reit as it is currently my largest holding.



Frasers Logistics & Industrial Trust

  1. Debt mainly in AUD and Euro, natural hedge.
  2. Proportion of debt based on fix rate has increase in Q318 to 81% from 79% in Q217
  3. Average cost of borrowing at 2.5%

With the debt mainly in AUD and EURO which yet to start their rate hike even with US raising the interest rate, I guess it should be safe for now



CapitaLand Retail China Trust

  1. 80% of the debt is currently hedge into fixed rates hence 20% in variables
  2. Average cost has been inching up from 2.51% in 1Q18 in March to 2.6%  2Q18 in Jun
  3. Debt is in SGD

With the debt in SGD, the interest rate hike will definitely impact CRCT once the hedge expired and need to re-hedge



Maple Greater China Trust

  1. Fixed rate is 78% in March 18.
  2. Natural debt in HKD, RMB and Yen
  3. Average interest rate 2.44%

Hong Kong has been following US on the interest rate hike to 2.5%
Japan yet to start to raise their interest rate.

I guess, the average might be going up due to interest rate hike in Hong Kong as it is still the majority of loan proportion.



Summary

Seem most of my main holding in REIT will be impacted except FLT for now.

Turbulence coming?

Friday 31 August 2018

Aug 18 Portfolio update, $3,300 away to achieve 2018 target

Transaction for the month of Aug
  1. Sold 8000 shares of AAReit @1.41, was bought @1.37
  2. Bought back 10000 shares of First Reit @1.3
  3. Bought additional 7000 shares of CapitaRetail China Trust @1.44
  4. Bought additional 10000 shares of EC World Reit @0.695

Total Profit to date is $24,751 which is $3,300 away from my this year target.

My current stock allocation

StockAllocation
First REIT50.44%
Frasers logistics and Industrial23.49%
CapitaLand Retail China Trust9.50%
EC World4.55%
IReit Global4.09%
Frasers Commercial Trust2.95%
Mapletree Greater China Trust2.79%
Fortune REIT2.20%

Friday 3 August 2018

RHT - Religare Health Trust Deal

Finally, I disposed off my holding in Religare Health Trust after I made some calculation.

Initial estimate distribution announced in early this February
  1. Final INR for consideration of INR46,000 millions. (It is suppose to be INR46,500 millions however there is a clause in the deal that reserve this INR500 millions if  parties not obtaining warranty and indemnity clause)
  2. Total outstanding shares was about 807,842,000
  3. Exchange rate INR48.5=SGD1
Based on the above, we will be able to derive why they mentioned net consideration is $0.88 (INR46,000 millions divided by INR 48.5 and divided by the total outstanding shares)

However the manager also mentioned the transaction cost of $15.8 millions with this the net proceed will be $0.86 and the manager reserve 5% and with this the estimated distributed will drop to $0.82.

Few months has passed and few thing has changes
  1. No of outstanding shares has increased to 809,644,000
    • Remember, there is another quarter in September that will increase the outstanding shares however for those still holding you should be able to get some additional dividend :)
  2. INR exchange rate has depreciate to around INR50 = SGD1 (as of 3 Aug 18)
With those 2 new figures , the estimate distribution will be $0.8 and with manager reserve 5%, the distributed amount somewhere in year end will be $0.78.

With a lot of uncertainty, even IHH has made the offer and Fortis has accept it then come Daiichi , you can read the news here . I have decided to say good bye to RHT since I don't see much capital gain I can have.

RHT is a painful lesson for me even though I don't suffer any capital loss and still keep the dividend over the year. I could have earn much more capital gain if I could did my due dilligence earlier instead of at this stage.

Friday 29 June 2018

June 18 Portfolio update, 60% toward 2018 goal.

For the month of June I have
  1. Bought back 8k shares of AA Reit at $1.38
  2. Bought back 10k shares of MGCCT at $1.14, with this I returned back the profit I have earlier and my average price will be $0.92
  3. Bought back 20k shares of CRCT at $1.55, with this I returned back the profit I have earlier and my average price will be $1.46
  4. Bought 8.5k FCOT shares at $1.37
  5. Sold 47.2k shares of First Reit at $1.37
Feel the pain for CRCT as when I bought at $1.55 the next hour it drop few cents and the next few days it was drop until $1.46, This is the fund from selling First Reit to diversify my concentration risk and I should be able to get the same yield as First Reit plus a little bit bonus as CRCT is bi-annual dividend and it is going to pay in next quarter.

I will divest some more of my First Reit when the price is right for me.

RHT deadline to be bought over by Fortis is getting nearer and if the price is above my cost, I will let it go and move on.

Total dividend and trading profit for 1st half of 2018 stood at $17.5k and based on my current holding I should be able to hit the profit of $28k i have set this year and may hit $30k.

My current portfolio


StockAllocation
First REIT46.47%
Frasers logistics and Industrial21.25%
Religare Health Trust (RHT)8.95%
CapitaLand Retail China Trust7.02%
IReit Global3.81%
EC World2.81%
Frasers Commercial Trust2.67%
Mapletree Greater China Trust2.62%
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT2.53%
Fortune REIT1.87%

Saturday 2 June 2018

First Reit Q1FY18 Overdue due dilligence

First REIT has been my largest allocation and recently saw a few articles highlight on the growing receivable which make me feel need to dig deeper due to my experience with RHT where Fortis has been delaying the payment.

First REIT generally has been a stable reit however with the recent news on the liquidity of the Sponsor (Lippo Karawaci) this also could end up like RHT case as the Indonesia assets account more than 95% of the total assets.

I emailed the investor relationship to ask about the growing receivable and it is indeed there has been a delay in collecting the rental in advance however it is not overdue like RHT case. The REIT manage is pro-actively managing the situation. With this, I will need to pay more attention if it will improve the rental collection rather than my past taking for granted on First REIT.

In general, I am ok with First Reit performance except the growing receivable and it has been quite sometime I want to reduce my allocation to the First Reit to balance out my reit allocation and finally this Thursday I sold out 47,200 shares. I will likely to reduce this further by another 50,000 shares.

Friday 18 May 2018

IREIT Q1FY18

There are few key item I need to keep in mind from the result

Munster South Building,

One of vacant floor since April 2017 has not yet being lease back. I got the reply from the investor relationship that there has been on-going enquiry and also negotiation on this vacant floor however nothing is materialised yet.

Berlin Campus,

IREIT is expected to be notified by Deutsche Rentenversicherung Bund pertaining to the lease break option around the middle of 2018. The office space that is subject to the lease break option represents approximately 6.1% of IREIT’s total gross rental income as at 31 March 2018.

The reply I got from IREIT is if this materialised then the loss of income will be only effective in mid 2019 and the expect to be notify some where in mid 2018, 1 year before the lease break effective.

Last amortisation schedule of  €1.275 million in May 2018,

IREIT will make the last partial loan repayment of €1.275 million in May 2018 in accordance with the loan amortisation schedule for the short-term loan facility provided by HSH Nordbank AG. As previously announced, the maturity date of the remaining principal of €18.5 million has been extended by two years from July 2018 to August 2020, without amortisation until the maturity date'

The current hedge implemented is at 1.63 which if we use the current result we should get similar dividend for FY18.
- Note at the time of writing the current exchange rate is at ~1.58, this will mean to translate lower distribution to the shareholder

For the lease,

FY19, 14.5% GRI to expire to take note.



For the Loan,

FY19, IREIT will need to refinance 50% of the current loan


In Summary

  1. FY18 result will be likely stable
    1. Potentially boost by amount save from amortization of loan
    2. The current distribution is at 90%
  2. FY19 will be impacted by
    1. 14.5% lease expiry (including Berlin lease break)
    2. Loan refinancing
    3. EUR exchange rate
    4. Potentially supported by the amount saved from amortization of loan

To note
The Manager is entitled to receive a performance fee of 25.0% of the difference in DPU of IREIT in a financial year with the DPU in the preceding financial year multiplied by the weighted average number of Units in issue for such financial year

Friday 4 May 2018

May 18 Portfolio Update

My last update was in Jan and from there I have sold AA REIT , I did small trading by buying and selling just to make a pocket money on CRCT, MGCCT and StarHill Global.


I am planning to sell some of my First Reit and buy other REIT to balance out the allocation in 1-2 months. Below are the REIT i am thinking to increase the allocation when opportunity arise
1. CRCT
2. MGCCT
3. AA REIT
4. IREIT
5. FCOT

Total Dividend and Profit from buy and sell is around $15k as of now. I will have some dividend coming from FLT and EC World as well that is current pending the REIT announcement.

For FLT right issue, I plan to subscribe to the right issue and any excess to it.

Below are my current holding,

StockAllocation
First REIT62.96%
Frasers logistics and Industrial19.04%
Religare Health Trust (RHT)9.27%
IReit Global3.93%
EC World2.91%
Fortune REIT1.88%

Saturday 28 April 2018

CapitaLand Retail China Trust (CRCT) Q1FY18

As expected the dividend for Q1 FY18 is supported by
  1. $3M from distribution of gains from the disposal of CapitaMall Anzhen which is lower $700k from previous distribution
  2. Share of result from JV of Rock Square $487K

I underestimate the JV of Rock Square, 
  1. Just for 2 month it contribute about $2m of net income, looking at Q1FY17 CapitaMall Anzhen contribute about $3,390m so it is almost a replacement of it.
  2. Positive rental reversion >20% and there will be 28% of lease expiry in FY2018

CapitaMall Wangjing,
The next income boost will come from the CapitaMall Wangjing level 4 more where the rental income from this recovered space will almost double and management projected ROI of 30%.

CapitaMall Wuhu, 
Based on Q1FY18 alone, currently it is bleeding $424k, If you see the footnote the management is partially closed CapitaMall Wuhu while evaluating options to reduce operating cost. If they could do something with this mall either disposed it off or turn around.. it will save us $424k which can be contributed to the dividend...and maybe the $$$ from disposal can be return to us. The mall currently value around RMB193M which around SGD40m.

CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan,
Still on-going for tenant mix adjustment, I hope this will be one of the catching up and go back to its glorious time where it was contributing about $5m (FY2012) in net income or maybe more as now we are in Year 2018.

Overall rental reversion is positive at 12.8%

Moving forward the dividend maybe sustain by the divestment gain $31.5m, current divestment gain return to shareholder
1. Q4FY17: $3.7M
2. Q1FY18 :$3.0M


Thursday 26 April 2018

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AA REIT) Q4FY18 - Actual DPU

Looking to the actual number in the DPU


The result of Q4FY18 compare to Q3FY18 based on the DPU alone will seem paint a good picture, if we dig deeper into the Income statement, we will see
  1. Gross revenue is down from $28,867 to $28,032 (-2.89%)
  2. Net Income is down from $19,233 to $17,669 (-8.13%)
However even with the 2 figure above,
  1. Dividend Payout is up from $17,076 to $17,975 (5.26%)
  2.  Dividend per unit is up from 2.62 cent to 2.63 cent 
Looking at the footnote, we will know that Q4FY18 dividend is supported by the retained earning from the past 3 quarters total amount is  $1,947 where in previous years it was $414 and $818.

If we to took away the amount then the payout will go down to $16,028 and with the increase of the total shares due to the private placement at $1.3, we will get 2.34 cent (the people who get the private placement enjoy the income that was retained in last 3 quarter huh? fair? this is reality...)

Few key notes from the management

1. Lower occupancies at 27 Penjuru Lane and 8 & 10 Pandan Crescent

The gross revenue achieved for 4Q FY2018 of S$28.0 million was S$0.8 million lower than that of 3Q FY2018. This was mainly due to lower occupancies at 27 Penjuru Lane and 8 & 10 Pandan Crescent. Some of the vacancies at 27 Penjuru Lane and 8 & 10 Pandan Crescent have since been filled and rental contributions will commence after the rent-free fit-out periods.

2. Higher operating expense

Property operating expenses for 4Q FY2018 of S$10.4 million were S$0.7 million higher than the property expenses for 3Q FY2018 mainly due to higher costs arising from the reversion of one additional phase of 20 Gul Way to multi-tenancy leases on 28 December 2017 and timing of repair and maintenance works carried out for the Group’s portfolio of properties.


3.One of the main drag (3 Tuas Avenue) will go to redevelopment so we will not see this producing the income so soon

The gross revenue achieved for FY2018 of S$116.9 million was S$4.3 million lower than the gross revenue for FY2017 of S$121.2 million (excluding property tax refund of S$1.1 million). This was mainly due to lower rental and recoveries from 20 Gul Way as five phases of the property reverted to multi-tenancy leases and the expiry of the master lease at 3 Tuas Avenue 2. This was partially offset by rental contribution from 30 Tuas West Road as it became income producing from 27 February 2017 and the maiden rental contribution from 8 Tuas Avenue 20 in 3Q FY2018.


What will be FY19 Dividend?

  1. 51 Marsiling road that should start to contribute after the fitting period that will contribute $3.5 million in gross revenue per year however based on the rental income, it still unable to cover the deficit from the dpu income $1,947 which if multiple by 4 quarter it will be $7.7 million
  2. Will the secured tenant at 27 Penjuru Lane and 8 & 10 Pandan Crescent after fitting period help?
  3. One time event for Higher property operating cost help?
  4. Manager able to secure more tenant? since the occupancy rate now is 90.5%
  5. 18% lease to expired in FY19 with 3.5% in the master lease
  6. 24% decrease in rental reversion in Q4FY18

*Currently vested with 15k shares


Friday 20 April 2018

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) Q2FY18

The result for Q2 FY2018 result is expected

  • Gross revenue drop from $35m to $33m
  • Dividend is supported by 
    • gain from disposal of hotel development rights $2.9m, in Q1 FY2018 it was supported $1.9m
    • Manager fees is paid fully in unit

For Q3 FY2018 performance, I guess

  • The acquisition in Feb will start to fully contribute to the revenue 
  • The impact of losing 131,149 sf due to HP will start to fully impact the revenue and additional 42,561 sf will also materialize by Apr 2018
  • Alexandra occupancy rate currently still around 70%
  • Q3 Dividend will again likely be supported by
    • Gain from disposal of hotel development (currently it has paid around $10m out of $44m)
    • Manager fees to be paid full in unit 

For the threat from rate increase, 

I think it should be minimal as currently the average interest rate is at almost 3%.



For the lease expire, 

Only 11% to expire in FY18 and 19.3% in FY19. With the demand and rental is stabilising, FCOT should be fine even there is a chance the rental reversion will be negative for the office segment as looking back at 3 years back which is 2015, the rental is pretty on the peak side


















In summary,

My view is nothing much to be expected from the DPU, if it can remain flat it will be good enough which yield around 6.5% as the Manager is trying to stabilize the occupancy rate and catch up for the amount of the dividend that is currently paid from gain of hotel development and fee that is paid in unit.

Q1 FY2018 Post

Monday 2 April 2018

Singapore Reit Result Announcement - Updated as 10 May 18


Company NameReleaseDiv (cent)Ex-datePay DayRemarks
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT25-Apr2.634 May21 JunBefore
Ascendas Hospitality Trust10 May1.7216 May19 JunAfter
Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust23-Apr 7.88 27 Apr 24 MayAfter
Ascott Residence Trust18-Apr1.35N.AN.ABefore
CapitaLand Commercial Trust24-Apr2.12N.AN.ABefore
CapitaLand Mall Trust24-Apr2.7826 Apr30-MayAfter
Cache Logistic Trust25-Apr1.5072 May28 MayAfter
CapitaLand Retail China Trust26-Apr2.75N.AN.AAfter
CDL Hospitality Trusts28-Apr2.17N.AN.A
Cromwell10 May1.45N.AN.ABefore
EC World REIT10 May1.46916 May29 JunAfter
ESR-REIT20-Apr0.84726-Apr31-MayBefore
Far East Hospitality Trust26-Apr0.943 May12 JuneBefore
First Real Estate Investment Trust17-Apr2.1523-Apr25-MayAfter
Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust
Frasers Centrepoint Trust25-Apr3.12 May30 MayBefore
Frasers Commercial Trust20-Apr1.6 (*2.4)26-Apr30-MayBefore
Frasers Hospitality Trust26-Apr1.11263 May29 JunBefore
Frasers Logistic and Industrial Trust7-May1.81 (*3.61)16 May26 JunAfter
IREIT Global10 May1.46N.AN.AAfter
Keppel DC REIT16-Apr1.8N.AN.AN.A
Keppel-KBS US17-Apr*2.37(1.5)N.AN.AN.A
Keppel REIT18-Apr1.4224-Apr30-May
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust3-May0.679 May30 MayAfter
Manulife US REIT30-Apr1.51N.AN.ABefore
Mapletree Commercial Trust24-Apr2.2730 Apr31 MayAfter
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust25-Apr1.9042 May25 MayAfter
Mapletree Industrial Trust24-Apr 2.9527 Apr  30 MayBefore
Mapletree Logistics Trust26-Apr1.9373 May6 JunAfter
OUE Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust10 May1.12N.AN.AAfter
OUE Hospitality Trust2 May1.268 May4 JunAfter
Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust30-Apr3.177 May1 JuneAfter
Soilbuild Business Space REIT16-Apr1.32420-Apr21-MayAfter
Sabana REIT23-Apr 0.88 27 Apr 25 MayAfter
SPH REIT6-Apr1.412-Apr16-May
Starhill Global Real Estate Investment Trust26-Apr1.093 May30 MayAfter
Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust25-Apr2.4332 May30 MayBefore
Viva Industrial Trust

Friday 9 February 2018

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) Q1FY18


Q1FY18 Dividend would have been not so good if it is not supported by
  1. Gain on disposal of hotel development rights is pretty high at $1,936 million for Q1 compare to FY17 $3,561 million and FY16 $2,2 million.
  2. Manager fees of $3,369 million is paid in unit 100% compare than Q4FY17 that only $622,000. This basically supply about $2,7 million to the dividend payout $19,456.
The 2 above basically support about $3.8 million to the dividend payout of $19,456 million

As for the recent acquisition the increase of 0.15 cent in dividend was based on 58 million unit issued but the actual unit issued are 67.5 million unit.

For the Alexandra Technopark, I feel the impact of the HPS moving out only just started, I summarized the info below from 3 Nov 17 announcement

HPS occupied 304,920 which the lease expire on 30 Nov however HPS committed to extend the lease in respect of an aggregate of 266,905 sf of space, as follows:
  1. 93,195 sf for thirteen months commencing from 1 December 2017;
  2. 42,561 sf for five months commencing from 1 December 2017; and
  3. 131,149 sf for between two to three months commencing from 1 December 2017;

 For Q1FY18, we only start to feel the impact of losing 38,015 sf and the next one will be pretty big which is the item 3 above, this mean by end February 2018, another 131,149 sf revenue will be lost.

Couple with the lease to be expired in FY18, seem the dividend for FY18 will be ....... as
  1. 100% Manager Fees has been paid out in unit 
  2. Gain on disposal is already pretty high returned to the shareholder 

Unless....
  1. The manager decided to distribute more to share holder to sustain the dividend. Net proceed was around $44 million and to date they have distributed $7 million
  2. The space not occupied by HPS can be lease out as soon as possible
  3. Positive rental reversion
Another item is the AEI $45 million for Alexandra technopark and the current cash is around $44 million

I don't see how the recent new acquisition can help much on the dividend - Look forward to Q2 result to see how the situation improving.

However, I think the REIT manager is a good one.

Tuesday 6 February 2018

CapitaLand Retail China Trust (CRCT) Q4FY17

Key take away for me

  1. Q4 Distribution include $3.7 million gain from Anzhen disposal.
  2. CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan have negative rental reversion of 31.4% and occupancy rate is not yet improved still at 78% , this is below my expectation - seem it will take sometime for the mall to stabilised
  3. Rock Square will start to contribute revenue from Feb 18 onward. I don't think this acquisition can fully off-set the lost from Anzhen as in FY16, Anzhen itself contribute about $13.9 million to the net property income whereby based on the illustration Rock Square will contribute about $6.3 million per year which far from Anzhen distribution hence will distribution in FY18 supported by $31.5 million divestment gain? even so, it will need to catch up with the difference otherwise dividend will drop considering the outstanding unit also increased by additional 64,392,000 due to this acquisition
  4. CapitaMall Grand Canyon  register 9.3% drop in revenue and 20.6% drop in net property income due to one time event in Q4 which might carry over to Q1FY18.
  5. CapitaMall Qibao facing competition and resulted drop in 7.9% in net property income and this has been happening since few quarters ago. FY17, total drop is 10.3% in net property income
  6. Gearing is 34% post-acquisition of Rock Square
  7. Occupancy rate is just slight dip from 95.6% to 95.4%

For FY18, seem the dividend to be supported will come from
  1. Rock Square contribution and rental reversion
  2. Turn around of CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan
  3. Disposal gain from CapitaMall Anzhen 
  4. Another acquisition?

Current revenue seem does not suggest it will be able to sustain 2.37 cent dividend without disposal gain support.

Lease Profile


Mall Revenue Breakdown for Q4


Mall NPI Breakdown for Q4


Mall Revenue Breakdown for FY17


Mall NPI Breakdown for FY17


Friday 2 February 2018

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AA REIT) Q3FY18


Q3FY18 dividend is a surprise for me as the manager manage to increase the dividend compare to the previous quarter despite declining occupancy rate, negative rental reversion. The main culprit seem to be the earning from property in Australia which also due to Australian dollar.

The REIT has experience negative rental reversion as shown in the table below, the drop in the revenue will be cushion by
  1. 8 Tuas Avenue 20 which has increase the occupancy rate from 43.4% to 83.7%
  2. 51 Marsiling Road which will start to bring revenue of $3.5 million per year from Q1FY19 on-ward
For Q4FY18, the remaining lease expiry is 5.7% of gross rental income and in FY19 the lease expiry will be 18.3% which include 3.3% gross rental income from master lease.

For the rest of FY18 to FY19, i guess the DPU will fluctuate depending on the REIT manager on securing the tenant and retaining the tenant as there is no much catalyst to boost the DPU plus the challenge situation of the industrial property with the declining rental.

The bright side is the occupancy rate stood at 88% which mean there is room for upside

FY18 Q1,Q2 and Q3 Data
1Q2Q3Q
Rental Reversion-4.30%-21.10%-15.10%
Gross Revenue (Q)30,50329,51428,867
Dividend Payout (Q)15,99916,32017,076
DPU0.0250.02550.0262
Total Managers Fees216318601881
Manager Fees paid in unit911930941
% Manager Fee Paid in Unit42.12%50.00%50.03%
NAV1.391.361.35
Debt $532,652546,743497,161
Gearing36.30%37.30%33.80%
Cost of Debt %3.60%3.60%3.60%
Interest Coverage Ratio4.94.64.6
WALE2.482.432.46
Occupancy Rate91.00%88.80%88.40%
No of Shares639,980640,632683,452
Payout Ratio94.40%99.00%94.50%
Cash7,43510,2779,702

Saturday 27 January 2018

Jan 18 Portfolio update - Sold CRCT and MGCCT

I have sold CapitaLand Retail China Trust for 20%+ profit and Mapletree Greater China Trust for 28% profit excluding the dividend received last year. With those profit it will last me with 3 years of dividend as I aim around 7% dividend from the money I invested.

My main reason are
1. The yield for the current price for CRCT has reach 6% and MGCCT has reach 5%.
2. CRCT has paid advance distribution hence the current quarter dividend is just for the Dec 17 and the next dividend will be 6 month away
3. MGCCT dividend will only be paid together with the next quarter result and with the new mandate, current gearing - not sure if new $$$ will be needed.
4. To bump up my war chest.

Current Portfolio are below

StockAllocation
First REIT50.88%
Frasers logistics and Industrial18.86%
Religare Health Trust (RHT)14.47%
IReit Global5.68%
EC World4.92%
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT3.30%
Fortune REIT1.89%

Tuesday 9 January 2018

Singapore Reit Result Announcement - Updated as 28 Feb 18

For those marked *, please check the website for actual distribution amount

Company Name Release Div (cent) Ex-date Pay Day Remarks
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT 1 Feb 2.62* 7 Feb 1 Mar Before
Ascendas Hospitality Trust 1 Feb 1.41 N.A N.A After
Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust 25 Jan 3.97 N.A N.A After
Ascott Residence Trust 26 Jan 3.73 1 Feb 28 Feb Before
CapitaLand Commercial Trust 25 Jan 4.1 2 Feb 28 Feb Before
CapitaLand Mall Trust 24-Jan 2.9 30 Jan 28 Feb Before
Cache Logistic Trust 18 Jan 1.597 24 Jan 27 Feb After
CapitaLand Retail China Trust 31 Jan 2.37* 6 Feb 23 Feb Before
CDL Hospitality Trusts 26 Jan 2.83 5 Feb 28 Feb Before
Cromwell
EC World REIT 28 Feb 1.504 6 Mar 29 Mar After
ESR-REIT 17-Jan 0.929 23 Jan 28 Feb Before
Far East Hospitality Trust 15 Feb 0.97 22 Feb 26 Mar Before
First Real Estate Investment Trust 17-Jan 2.15 23 Jan 28 Feb After
Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust 23 Jan 25.25 5 Feb 28 Feb After
Frasers Centrepoint Trust 23-Jan 3.0 29 Jan 28 Feb After
Frasers Commercial Trust 22 Jan 2.4 29 Jan 1 Mar
Frasers Hospitality Trust 24- Jan 1.3107  N.A N.A After
Frasers Logistic & Industrial Trust 25 Jan 1.8 N.A N.A After
IREIT Global 14 Feb 2.88 5 Mar 15 Mar After
Keppel DC REIT 22 Jan 3.49 26 Jan 28 Feb
Keppel-KBS US
Keppel REIT 23 Jan 1.43 29 Jan 28 Feb
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust 13 Feb 0.79 22 Feb 15 Mar After
Manulife US REIT 6-Feb 1.42 12 Feb 29 Mar Before
Mapletree Commercial Trust 24 Jan 2.3 30 Jan 28 Feb After
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust 25 Jan 1.863 N.A N.A After
Mapletree Industrial Trust 23 Jan 2.88 After
Mapletree Logistics Trust 22-Jan 2.088 26 Jan 28 Feb After
OUE Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust 31 Jan 2.29 6 Feb 9 Mar After
OUE Hospitality Trust 30 Jan 1.27 5 Feb 28 Feb After
Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust 26 Jan 3.38 1 Feb 27 Feb Before
Soilbuild Business Space REIT 17-Jan 1.383 26 Jan 28 Feb After
Sabana REIT 25-Jan 0.83 1 Feb 28 Feb After
SPH REIT 5-Jan 1.34 11-Jan 14-Feb After
Starhill Global Real Estate Investment Trust 29 Jan 1.17 2 Feb 28 Feb After
Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust 24 Jan 2.604 30 Jan 27 Feb Before
Viva Industrial Trust 26 Jan 1.857 1 Feb 28 Feb Before

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