CapitaLand Retail China Trust (CRCT) Q1FY18

As expected the dividend for Q1 FY18 is supported by

1. $3M from distribution of gains from the disposal of CapitaMall Anzhen which is lower $700k from previous distribution
2. Share of result from JV of Rock Square $487K

I underestimate the JV of Rock Square, 

1. Just for 2 month it contribute about $2m of net income, looking at Q1FY17 CapitaMall Anzhen contribute about $3,390m so it is almost a replacement of it.
2. Positive rental reversion >20% and there will be 28% of lease expiry in FY2018

CapitaMall Wangjing,
The next income boost will come from the CapitaMall Wangjing level 4 more where the rental income from this recovered space will almost double and management projected ROI of 30%.

CapitaMall Wuhu, 
Based on Q1FY18 alone, currently it is bleeding $424k, If you see the footnote the management is partially closed CapitaMall Wuhu while evaluating options to reduce operating cost. If they could do something with this mall either disposed it off or turn around.. it will save us $424k which can be contributed to the dividend...and maybe the $$$ from disposal can be return to us. The mall currently value around RMB193M which around SGD40m.

CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan,
Still on-going for tenant mix adjustment, I hope this will be one of the catching up and go back to its glorious time where it was contributing about $5m (FY2012) in net income or maybe more as now we are in Year 2018.

Overall rental reversion is positive at 12.8%

Moving forward the dividend maybe sustain by the divestment gain $31.5m, current divestment gain return to shareholder
1. Q4FY17: $3.7M
2. Q1FY18 :$3.0M

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AA REIT) Q4FY18 - Actual DPU

Looking to the actual number in the DPU

The result of Q4FY18 compare to Q3FY18 based on the DPU alone will seem paint a good picture, if we dig deeper into the Income statement, we will see

1. Gross revenue is down from $28,867 to $28,032 (-2.89%)
2. Net Income is down from $19,233 to $17,669 (-8.13%)

However even with the 2 figure above,

1. Dividend Payout is up from $17,076 to $17,975 (5.26%)
2.  Dividend per unit is up from 2.62 cent to 2.63 cent 

Looking at the footnote, we will know that Q4FY18 dividend is supported by the retained earning from the past 3 quarters total amount is  $1,947 where in previous years it was $414 and $818.

If we to took away the amount then the payout will go down to $16,028 and with the increase of the total shares due to the private placement at $1.3, we will get 2.34 cent (the people who get the private placement enjoy the income that was retained in last 3 quarter huh? fair? this is reality...)

Few key notes from the management

1. Lower occupancies at 27 Penjuru Lane and 8 & 10 Pandan Crescent

The gross revenue achieved for 4Q FY2018 of S$28.0 million was S$0.8 million lower than that of 3Q FY2018. This was mainly due to lower occupancies at 27 Penjuru Lane and 8 & 10 Pandan Crescent. Some of the vacancies at 27 Penjuru Lane and 8 & 10 Pandan Crescent have since been filled and rental contributions will commence after the rent-free fit-out periods.

2. Higher operating expense

Property operating expenses for 4Q FY2018 of S$10.4 million were S$0.7 million higher than the property expenses for 3Q FY2018 mainly due to higher costs arising from the reversion of one additional phase of 20 Gul Way to multi-tenancy leases on 28 December 2017 and timing of repair and maintenance works carried out for the Group’s portfolio of properties.

3.One of the main drag (3 Tuas Avenue) will go to redevelopment so we will not see this producing the income so soon

The gross revenue achieved for FY2018 of S$116.9 million was S$4.3 million lower than the gross revenue for FY2017 of S$121.2 million (excluding property tax refund of S$1.1 million). This was mainly due to lower rental and recoveries from 20 Gul Way as five phases of the property reverted to multi-tenancy leases and the expiry of the master lease at 3 Tuas Avenue 2. This was partially offset by rental contribution from 30 Tuas West Road as it became income producing from 27 February 2017 and the maiden rental contribution from 8 Tuas Avenue 20 in 3Q FY2018.


What will be FY19 Dividend?

1. 51 Marsiling road that should start to contribute after the fitting period that will contribute $3.5 million in gross revenue per year however based on the rental income, it still unable to cover the deficit from the dpu income $1,947 which if multiple by 4 quarter it will be $7.7 million
2. Will the secured tenant at 27 Penjuru Lane and 8 & 10 Pandan Crescent after fitting period help?
3. One time event for Higher property operating cost help?
4. Manager able to secure more tenant? since the occupancy rate now is 90.5%
5. 18% lease to expired in FY19 with 3.5% in the master lease
6. 24% decrease in rental reversion in Q4FY18

*Currently vested with 15k shares

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) Q2FY18

The result for Q2 FY2018 result is expected

• Gross revenue drop from $35m to $33m
• Dividend is supported by 
• gain from disposal of hotel development rights $2.9m, in Q1 FY2018 it was supported $1.9m
• Manager fees is paid fully in unit

For Q3 FY2018 performance, I guess

• The acquisition in Feb will start to fully contribute to the revenue 
• The impact of losing 131,149 sf due to HP will start to fully impact the revenue and additional 42,561 sf will also materialize by Apr 2018
• Alexandra occupancy rate currently still around 70%
• Q3 Dividend will again likely be supported by
• Gain from disposal of hotel development (currently it has paid around $10m out of $44m)
• Manager fees to be paid full in unit 

For the threat from rate increase, 

I think it should be minimal as currently the average interest rate is at almost 3%.

For the lease expire, 

Only 11% to expire in FY18 and 19.3% in FY19. With the demand and rental is stabilising, FCOT should be fine even there is a chance the rental reversion will be negative for the office segment as looking back at 3 years back which is 2015, the rental is pretty on the peak side

In summary,

My view is nothing much to be expected from the DPU, if it can remain flat it will be good enough which yield around 6.5% as the Manager is trying to stabilize the occupancy rate and catch up for the amount of the dividend that is currently paid from gain of hotel development and fee that is paid in unit.

Q1 FY2018 Post

Singapore Reit Result Announcement - Updated as 10 May 18

Company Name	Release	Div (cent)	Ex-date	Pay Day	Remarks
AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT	25-Apr	2.63	4 May	21 Jun	Before
Ascendas Hospitality Trust	10 May	1.72	16 May	19 Jun	After
Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust	23-Apr	7.88	27 Apr	24 May	After
Ascott Residence Trust	18-Apr	1.35	N.A	N.A	Before
CapitaLand Commercial Trust	24-Apr	2.12	N.A	N.A	Before
CapitaLand Mall Trust	24-Apr	2.78	26 Apr	30-May	After
Cache Logistic Trust	25-Apr	1.507	2 May	28 May	After
CapitaLand Retail China Trust	26-Apr	2.75	N.A	N.A	After
CDL Hospitality Trusts	28-Apr	2.17	N.A	N.A
Cromwell	10 May	1.45	N.A	N.A	Before
EC World REIT	10 May	1.469	16 May	29 Jun	After
ESR-REIT	20-Apr	0.847	26-Apr	31-May	Before
Far East Hospitality Trust	26-Apr	0.94	3 May	12 June	Before
First Real Estate Investment Trust	17-Apr	2.15	23-Apr	25-May	After
Fortune Real Estate Investment Trust
Frasers Centrepoint Trust	25-Apr	3.1	2 May	30 May	Before
Frasers Commercial Trust	20-Apr	1.6 (*2.4)	26-Apr	30-May	Before
Frasers Hospitality Trust	26-Apr	1.1126	3 May	29 Jun	Before
Frasers Logistic and Industrial Trust	7-May	1.81 (*3.61)	16 May	26 Jun	After
IREIT Global	10 May	1.46	N.A	N.A	After
Keppel DC REIT	16-Apr	1.8	N.A	N.A	N.A
Keppel-KBS US	17-Apr	*2.37(1.5)	N.A	N.A	N.A
Keppel REIT	18-Apr	1.42	24-Apr	30-May
Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust	3-May	0.67	9 May	30 May	After
Manulife US REIT	30-Apr	1.51	N.A	N.A	Before
Mapletree Commercial Trust	24-Apr	2.27	30 Apr	31 May	After
Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust	25-Apr	1.904	2 May	25 May	After
Mapletree Industrial Trust	24-Apr	2.95	27 Apr	30 May	Before
Mapletree Logistics Trust	26-Apr	1.937	3 May	6 Jun	After
OUE Commercial Real Estate Investment Trust	10 May	1.12	N.A	N.A	After
OUE Hospitality Trust	2 May	1.26	8 May	4 Jun	After
Parkway Life Real Estate Investment Trust	30-Apr	3.17	7 May	1 June	After
Soilbuild Business Space REIT	16-Apr	1.324	20-Apr	21-May	After
Sabana REIT	23-Apr	0.88	27 Apr	25 May	After
SPH REIT	6-Apr	1.4	12-Apr	16-May
Starhill Global Real Estate Investment Trust	26-Apr	1.09	3 May	30 May	After
Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust	25-Apr	2.433	2 May	30 May	Before
Viva Industrial Trust