Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) Q1FY18

Q1FY18 Dividend would have been not so good if it is not supported by

1. Gain on disposal of hotel development rights is pretty high at $1,936 million for Q1 compare to FY17 $3,561 million and FY16 $2,2 million.
2. Manager fees of $3,369 million is paid in unit 100% compare than Q4FY17 that only $622,000. This basically supply about $2,7 million to the dividend payout $19,456.

The 2 above basically support about $3.8 million to the dividend payout of $19,456 million

As for the recent acquisition the increase of 0.15 cent in dividend was based on 58 million unit issued but the actual unit issued are 67.5 million unit.

For the Alexandra Technopark, I feel the impact of the HPS moving out only just started, I summarized the info below from 3 Nov 17 announcement

HPS occupied 304,920 which the lease expire on 30 Nov however HPS committed to extend the lease in respect of an aggregate of 266,905 sf of space, as follows:

1. 93,195 sf for thirteen months commencing from 1 December 2017;
2. 42,561 sf for five months commencing from 1 December 2017; and
3. 131,149 sf for between two to three months commencing from 1 December 2017;

 For Q1FY18, we only start to feel the impact of losing 38,015 sf and the next one will be pretty big which is the item 3 above, this mean by end February 2018, another 131,149 sf revenue will be lost.

Couple with the lease to be expired in FY18, seem the dividend for FY18 will be ....... as

1. 100% Manager Fees has been paid out in unit 
2. Gain on disposal is already pretty high returned to the shareholder 

Unless....

1. The manager decided to distribute more to share holder to sustain the dividend. Net proceed was around $44 million and to date they have distributed $7 million
2. The space not occupied by HPS can be lease out as soon as possible
3. Positive rental reversion

Another item is the AEI $45 million for Alexandra technopark and the current cash is around $44 million

I don't see how the recent new acquisition can help much on the dividend - Look forward to Q2 result to see how the situation improving.

However, I think the REIT manager is a good one.

CapitaLand Retail China Trust (CRCT) Q4FY17

Key take away for me

1. Q4 Distribution include $3.7 million gain from Anzhen disposal.
2. CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan have negative rental reversion of 31.4% and occupancy rate is not yet improved still at 78% , this is below my expectation - seem it will take sometime for the mall to stabilised
3. Rock Square will start to contribute revenue from Feb 18 onward. I don't think this acquisition can fully off-set the lost from Anzhen as in FY16, Anzhen itself contribute about $13.9 million to the net property income whereby based on the illustration Rock Square will contribute about $6.3 million per year which far from Anzhen distribution hence will distribution in FY18 supported by $31.5 million divestment gain? even so, it will need to catch up with the difference otherwise dividend will drop considering the outstanding unit also increased by additional 64,392,000 due to this acquisition
4. CapitaMall Grand Canyon  register 9.3% drop in revenue and 20.6% drop in net property income due to one time event in Q4 which might carry over to Q1FY18.
5. CapitaMall Qibao facing competition and resulted drop in 7.9% in net property income and this has been happening since few quarters ago. FY17, total drop is 10.3% in net property income
6. Gearing is 34% post-acquisition of Rock Square
7. Occupancy rate is just slight dip from 95.6% to 95.4%

For FY18, seem the dividend to be supported will come from

1. Rock Square contribution and rental reversion
2. Turn around of CapitaMall Minzhongleyuan
3. Disposal gain from CapitaMall Anzhen 
4. Another acquisition?

Current revenue seem does not suggest it will be able to sustain 2.37 cent dividend without disposal gain support.

Lease Profile

Mall Revenue Breakdown for Q4

Mall NPI Breakdown for Q4

Mall Revenue Breakdown for FY17

Mall NPI Breakdown for FY17

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AA REIT) Q3FY18

Q3FY18 dividend is a surprise for me as the manager manage to increase the dividend compare to the previous quarter despite declining occupancy rate, negative rental reversion. The main culprit seem to be the earning from property in Australia which also due to Australian dollar.

The REIT has experience negative rental reversion as shown in the table below, the drop in the revenue will be cushion by

1. 8 Tuas Avenue 20 which has increase the occupancy rate from 43.4% to 83.7%
2. 51 Marsiling Road which will start to bring revenue of $3.5 million per year from Q1FY19 on-ward

For Q4FY18, the remaining lease expiry is 5.7% of gross rental income and in FY19 the lease expiry will be 18.3% which include 3.3% gross rental income from master lease.

For the rest of FY18 to FY19, i guess the DPU will fluctuate depending on the REIT manager on securing the tenant and retaining the tenant as there is no much catalyst to boost the DPU plus the challenge situation of the industrial property with the declining rental.

The bright side is the occupancy rate stood at 88% which mean there is room for upside

FY18 Q1,Q2 and Q3 Data

	1Q	2Q	3Q
Rental Reversion	-4.30%	-21.10%	-15.10%
Gross Revenue (Q)	30,503	29,514	28,867
Dividend Payout (Q)	15,999	16,320	17,076
DPU	0.025	0.0255	0.0262
Total Managers Fees	2163	1860	1881
Manager Fees paid in unit	911	930	941
% Manager Fee Paid in Unit	42.12%	50.00%	50.03%
NAV	1.39	1.36	1.35
Debt $	532,652	546,743	497,161
Gearing	36.30%	37.30%	33.80%
Cost of Debt %	3.60%	3.60%	3.60%
Interest Coverage Ratio	4.9	4.6	4.6
WALE	2.48	2.43	2.46
Occupancy Rate	91.00%	88.80%	88.40%
No of Shares	639,980	640,632	683,452
Payout Ratio	94.40%	99.00%	94.50%
Cash	7,435	10,277	9,702